Quick Take: Q1 DRAM Price Follow-up, 8GB DDR3 Below Target
March 3, 2010In September 2009 we predicted that average 8GB DIMM prices (DDR2 and DDR3) would reach $565/stick by year end (with DDR3 being higher than DDR2) and at now we’re seeing the reversal of fortunes for DDR2. At year end, the average price for benchmark DDR2/DDR3 was $591 retail, with promotional pricing pushing that below$550 as predicted. Today, we’re seeing DDR3 begin to overtake DDR2 in the 8GB ECC category, dropping below $510/stick, while DDR2 climbs to $550/stick (promotional, on $625/stick retail.)
In 4GB ECC configurations, DDR2 enjoys only a slight retail advantage (13%) while promotional pricing (likely due to inventory reduction initiatives) are providing a bit better value short term. However, the price gap is only 1/2 the power gap, with DDR3 delivering a greater than 35% reduction in power over its DDR2 equivalent (about $1.25/year/stick at $0.10/kWh). The honeymoon is almost over for DDR2.
| Benchmark Server (Spot) Memory Pricing – Dual Rank DDR2 Only |
|||||
| DDR2 Reg. ECC Series (1.8V) | Price Jun ’09 | Price Sep ’09 | Price Dec ’09 | Price Mar ’10 | |
|
$100.00 | $117.00 up 17% |
$140.70 up 23% promo |
$128.90
($151 retail) |
|
|
$80.00 | $103.00 up 29% |
$97.99 down 5% |
$128.74
($149 retail) |
|
|
$396.00 | $433.00 | $433.00 (promo) | $550.00 (Promo price, retail $625) |
|
| Benchmark Server (Spot) Memory Pricing – Dual Rank DDR3 Only |
|||||
| DDR3 Reg. ECC Series (1.5V) | Price Jun ’09 | Price Sep ’09 | Price Dec ’09 | Price Mar ’10 | |
|
$138.00 | $151.00 up 10% |
$135.99 down 10% |
$150.74 ($170 retail) |
|
|
$132.00 | $151.00 up 15% |
$137.59 down 9% (promo) |
$150.74 ($170 retail) |
|
|
$1035.00 | $917.00 down 11.5% | $667.00 down 28% |
$506.59
(retail $584, avail. 3/15) |
|
|
$584.00 | ||||
SOLORI’s Take: With strong DDR3 demand and short-falls in DDR2 supply (according to DRAMeXchange), the only thing keeping DDR3 prices above DDR2 at this point is demand and inventory. As Q2/2010 introduces a rush of new workstation and server products based on DDR3 systems, the DRAM production ramp will eventually stabilize demand somewhere towards the end of Q3/2010. Meanwhile, technology companies like VMware, Microsoft, Intel and AMD are betting on new infrastructure spending on operating systems, virtualization and hardware refresh to drive-up economic market factors. If the global economic crisis deepens, this anticipated spending spree could be short-lived and its impact shallow.
